Bitcoin is inherently apolitical in the sense that no third party or government can influence the critical aspects of how the network functions.
But politicians can influence Bitcoin tangentially, by enacting regulations that make it more difficult to access, by implementing economic policies that drive more people towards this alternative, or through other actions within their power. And individuals’ decisions to leverage BTC, to forgo financial systems run by governments, or to use Bitcoin to bypass regulatory systems are fiercely political, even if the technology itself doesn’t care why you’re adopting it. .
With that dynamic in mind, Bitcoin Magazine wanted to get a sense of the community’s view of even the US presidential election. With a host of critical policy decisions apparently on the horizon and significant divisions between candidates, we wanted to know what Bitcoiners think of the race.
We worked with Carrot, a platform for rewarding people for completing tasks with satoshis through the Lightning Network, to host a survey for our readers. Below we present the findings of Bitcoin Magazinefirst-ever “Election Sentiment Analysis.”
In our survey, Bitcoiners were asked to tell us which presidential candidate they hoped to win, how they think Bitcoin would be affected if Donald Trump or Joe Biden took the win, and to share any other bold predictions they made to BTC after the election. had.
Of the 125 people who responded, 58 (46.4 percent) said they hoped Donald Trump would win; 43 (34.4 percent) chose Joe Biden; 17 (13.6 percent) said they hoped a third candidate would win; and seven (5.6 percent) chose not to answer.
Rooting for Trump
When we dig into the written responses of those chasing Trump, it seems they agree with the US in general to predict that he will be the better candidate for the performance of the national economy. According to CNBC45 percent of Americans think the stock market will be higher within a year if Trump is reelected, while only 32 percent think Joe Biden would be best for the stock market. That general sentiment carried over to our Bitcoiner respondents:
“I think asset prices will continue to rise as the economy will improve,” wrote Robert Hall, who said he was coming after Trump. “Hiring more people means more people with income to buy bitcoin. It’s that simple. “
Respondent Deniz Saat echoed that general logic: Trump is more likely to stimulate the economy in general and that will be an advantage for the asset price of bitcoin and thus Bitcoin in general.
“In the short term, the price may drop, but in the long term, this will not affect the trajectory,” Saat wrote. “If his administration continues to issue checks, more price spikes will cause bitcoin and the stock market to rise.”
On the other hand, respondents who indicated that they hope Trump wins reelection shared some of their fears about how a Biden presidency could harm Bitcoin. Overall, this was the opposite of their outlook for Trump’s economic prowess.
“Biden will focus on COVID and [the] economy can recover more slowly, ”wrote an anonymous respondent. “Bitcoin will take a longer period of time before it can ever reach its highest point.”
But at least one respondent noted fears about how Biden would approach technologies like Bitcoin from a regulatory standpoint.
“Dems like checks and taxes, they will [make] very difficult exchange rules ”, wrote another anonymous respondent. “Most are healthy too[ly] as opposed to cryptographic privacy, like James Comey. “
Rooting for Biden
Of the respondents who wrote that they would rather see Joe Biden win the presidency, many again reflected the national sentiment about how the candidates’ administrations would differ. According to Newsweek56 percent of likely voters said Biden could better manage the COVID-19 crisis. That feeling was also reflected in our own research.
“Biden will handle the current CV-19 crisis well,” wrote an anonymous respondent who said they hope Biden will win. “The economy will eventually improve, but it will take longer. Bitcoin price volatility will be smaller and its rise will be gradual. “
Several of the respondents who chose Biden explained that they hoped he would accelerate the need for Bitcoin through unruly economic stimulus.
“Printer is going ‘brrr’, and numbers are going up,” wrote CookedCookee, who said they hoped Biden would win, explaining how a Biden presidency would affect Bitcoin.
As for the fears of Bitcoin that the Biden camp has should Trump be re-elected, a few respondents pointed to Trump’s potential misunderstandings and inappropriate regulatory action as negative opportunities for Bitcoin.
“I don’t think Trump understands exactly what Bitcoin’s value proposition is,” wrote respondent Mark Rudnitsky. “As a result, given his anti-technology stance, I expect Trump to go against Bitcoin on the grounds of ‘stopping terrorist financing.’
“Vote red and say goodbye to your Bitcoin sovereignty in the US … Orange man does not like orange coins,” said an anonymous respondent. “Vote blue and say hello to the possibility of a progressive financial future while easing your legal blunt to celebrate.”
An anonymous respondent who chose Joe Biden as the preferred candidate made a bold prediction of what could happen if their wish is not fulfilled.
“I think [Trump] will fight [Bitcoin] until he gets some, ”they wrote. Then he’ll brag about how great it is and how he knew it before, and he always makes the best deals. Then he will probably claim that he knew Satoshi, and then the prices will go up. Then the enemies he created will try to use it against him and we’ll see a ‘war’ between parties that finally put Bitcoin in the spotlight. For good or bad, who can say that? “
Bitcoin is Bitcoin
Even among those who indicated a preference for Trump or Biden, many of our respondents explained that the election will somehow have no impact on Bitcoin in the long run.
“Bitcoin is an unstoppable freight train, whoever wins, his fate is sealed,” wrote a respondent named Logan. “Vote for Bitcoin 2020.”
Many other respondents wrote that they expect the price of BTC to rise no matter who wins, either because of chaos in traditional markets or simply because the price of bitcoin will rise, whichever happens as more people realize the benefits of the technology .
“Both [potential] Presidents are unfit, so it will be a chaotic time and the only safe haven will be bitcoin, ”wrote an anonymous respondent. “People will slowly realize that and when that time comes, bitcoin will see new [all-time highs]. “
Only time will tell how the next US president will affect Bitcoin’s trajectory, if at all. But what’s clear on the eve of this election is that Bitcoiners have something to say about the direction of this country and how their preferred technology fits into it … or not.