As markets return to digest a wild Christmas, Cointelegraph presents five factors that will help in Bitcoin’s price direction this week.
Gold is rising as Trump signs a stimulus bull
Markets have been spared a nightmare this week after US President Donald Trump agreed to shut down Congress’ $ 900 billion incentive bill for coronavirus.
Set to add a large amount of debt to the Federal Reserve’s existing mountain, the package includes several benefits for businesses but does not provide Americans with the same level of direct financial support as it did in March.
Trump had said the second stimulus’s low direct payment amount – $ 600 versus $ 1,200 last time – meant he couldn’t condone it, but then changed his mind.
Markets have thus started a new week positively, with slight gains on the S&P 500 futures ahead of the opening of Wall St.
At the same time, gold has returned in style, with data showing that the precious metal is now on track for its biggest gain in a year in a decade.
Compared to the end of November, XAU / USD is up $ 111 or 6.25%.
“As President @realDonaldTrump vetoed just nine bills, the lowest number since Warren Harding, who served just two years, from 1921-1923,” gold bug and infamous Bitcoin naysayer Peter Schiff tweeted as the bill was signed.
Not since Chester Arthur (1881-1885) has a president who turned down a full term in office, fewer bills. You cannot empty the swamp by making it deeper. “
Regulations come before regular Bitcoin
After striking a fresh note to a larger audience over Christmas with runs to new record highs, Bitcoin will soon have to face the music with the establishment, sources warn.
At $ 28,400 and a maximum monthly profit of 55%, Bitcoin is now firmly on the regulators’ radar as its appeal grows. Even for its advocates, the next year could prove to be a difficult time.
With outgoing Treasury Secretary Steven Mnuchin leaving its mark with an effort to enforce new laws on non-custodial wallets, his replacement, Janet Yellen, may hardly be an improvement, they say.
“Overall, I think we’ve had challenges with the Dems – they prefer more regulation, more oversight,” said Meltem Demirors, chief strategy officer at Digital Asset Manager CoinShares. told Bloomberg on Sundays.
“I’m a little concerned about the direction things are trending.”
As always in the US, the patchwork of political allegiances means that any attack can be tempered by the presence of crypto-friendly figures elsewhere. The new chairman of the Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC), Elad Roisman, is considered a fan.
Bitcoin rebuttal at $ 28,400 “very healthy” – analyst
Focusing on the latest Bitcoin spot market action, Monday looks set to be a major test for bulls given the momentum seen this weekend.
After hitting all-time highs of $ 28,400 on Sunday, Bitcoin saw a drop many had already anticipated.
“#Bitcoin underwent a very healthy correction as it went quite vertical. Maybe it is the temporary top for the time being ”, says Michaël van de Poppe, analyst at Cointelegraph Markets summarized on social media.
“What’s next? Consolidation, sideways action, less volatility. Giving room for the rest of the markets to accelerate. $ BTC pairs are doing well.”
Van de Poppe looks at the potential for altcoins to begin their response to Bitcoin’s recent glory, arguing that signs are already emerging that “altseason” is around the corner.
After #Bitcoin has completed the run (and it’s pretty vertical), the money will start flowing to large caps. And then towards midcaps and smallcaps, ”he continued.
“Altcoins are not dead, the flow of money is still the same.”
While floundering against BTC, some popular altcoins are still delivering significant returns in USD terms, with market leader Ether (ETH) traded above $ 700 for the first time since May 2018. Compared to the low of $ 113 in March, ETH / USD is now up 530%.
Record Bitcoin futures gap
Bitcoin is facing the biggest hole ever to appear in the futures markets this week.
Data from CME Group’s futures shows that Friday’s trading ended at around $ 23,825. Monday started off with a pit to low of $ 26,500 from opening levels, with the rank difference being the largest ever in a weekend.
These so-called “gaps” in the futures refer to the void between Friday and Monday trading sessions, and the BTC / USD spot price tends to return later to “fill” them.
However, in recent weeks, this trend has weakened, with remaining gaps between USD 16,900 and USD 19,500 only partially filled.
This, in turn, has given rise to theories among analysts: including From Cointelegraph’s Poppe – that Bitcoin could still flip down to visit levels below $ 20,000 just long enough to take care of its unfinished business.
In fact, should that not happen, analysts must instead accept the loss of what was once a solid indicator of the Bitcoin price trajectory in the near term.
Stock-to-flow predicts the peak
As for the price trajectory, the latest move puts Bitcoin at odds with one of its best known and most reliable pricing models – stock-to-flow.
After rising Just to meet the model’s demands last week, the weekend saw BTC / USD fare better, returning to the mid-USD 26,000 on Sunday, prompting compliance to quickly return.
As noted by both creator PlanB and Saifedean Ammous, author of “The Bitcoin Standard,” Bitcoin generally remains very faithful to what stock-to-flow needs almost on a daily basis.
“Bitcoin price continues to track the predicted value of @ 100trillionUSD’s stock-to-flow model with astounding precision,” Ammous summarized.
Going forward, the different incarnations of the model will call for price levels of anywhere from $ 100,000 to $ 576,000 between now and the end of the current halving cycle in 2024.