Crypto analytics provider Messari has produced a report concluding that the legendary “Coinbase effect– the popular belief that new token listings on Coinbase tend to outperform launches on other exchanges – is true.
But the effect is far from consistent and when adjusted for outliers, it is not as great as many think.
Messari analyzed the performance of 28 new Coinbase Listings over five days against 22 Binance Listings, 19 FTX Listings, 19 Gemini Listings, 14 OKEx Listings, and 11 Kraken Listings over the same duration.
While the study found that listings on Coinbase had the highest average return of 91%, the effect was far from consistent. The 28 tokens performed anywhere from a 32% loss to a 645% gain after five days. In contrast, new tokens on other exchanges ranged from a loss of about 25% to a gain of 60% with the next best average total gain for an exchange of about 20%.
However, the researchers note that external factors caused extreme returns for several tokens shortly after they were listed on Coinbase, with Distict0x up 645% and Civic 493%.
When Messari “checked for outliers,” he still found that Coinbase’s new offerings outperformed other exchanges, with returns ranging between 0% and 66% for an average of 29% overall.
In the adjusted data, OKEx took second place on average with tokens gaining nearly 20%, followed by Kraken at 15%, FTX at 12%, Binance at around 0%, and Gemini at a small loss.
The Coinbase effect could be related to the popularity of the exchange and its strong brand name or a byproduct of US crypto regulations deterring many exchanges and issuers from offering services to residents of the United States, limiting the ability for retail investors to access many altcoins.
Messari describes Coinbase as “the biggest retail disaster to crypto,” suggesting that the strong average performance of freshly quoted tokens on the exchange can be attributed to US private investors racing to gain exposure to previously inaccessible markets.
However, the report noted, “Coinbase listing has the potential to positively impact asset returns, it doesn’t affect all tokens the same way.”