Bitcoin (BTC) looks shaky at the start of a new week as $ 60,000 remains out of reach – can anything change in the coming days?
After an average weekend that hasn’t delivered the breakthrough many had hoped for, Bitcoin is clinging to the mid $ 50,000 mark.
Cointelegraph looks at five factors that can help determine future price performance.
Coinbase IPO a beacon in flat macro sea
Stock markets were unimpressive on Monday, April 5, with many Asian markets closed due to holidays and US futures showing little movement.
After the Suez Canal debacle, oil was the only commodity with noticeable energy, as a decision by OPEC + countries to increase supply put pressure on prices.
With a lack of momentum available, Bitcoin therefore had little to support a macro-influenced price run, and at the time of writing, $ 60,000 resistance persisted.
A major event that crypto analysts are eagerly looking forward to is Coinbase’s initial public offering on April 14.
Such as Cointelegraph reported, the event is a milestone for the industry, but may involve sales on launch day – a practice seen with other IPOs, both old and new.
Elsewhere, increases in US bond yields remained a concern this week, with their upward trajectory coinciding with a lack of progress for broader safe havens.
“The repricing of inflation risk and US interest rates, which will affect the discount rates of future earnings and the way stocks are valued, is a source of uncertainty,” said Johanna Chua, chief economist at Citigroup Global Markets, told Bloomberg.
“The other uncertainty is the pace of the vaccinations and the virus.”
Analyst: Bitcoin is in the “$ 3-5K phase” of 2021 bull run
Bitcoin may be struggling for new support, but hodlers need to zoom out for the real picture.
That was the mood among analysts on Monday when BTC / USD fell to $ 56,000.
After challenging again against $ 60,000 on Friday, bearish moves took over over the weekend, culminating in a dip to $ 56,500.
A subsequent rebound was muffled, with $ 57,000 being a temporary focal point at the time of writing.
“The battle for the supportive backlash is intense,” the on-chain data service Whalemap added on Sunday about current behavior.
“Last week’s levels work quite well. Bitcoin is capped at the USD 60,045 level, which is pretty good. Is this the calm before the storm? “
However, for popular Twitter analyst William Clemente, there was little reason to be bearish over longer time frames, backed by a tranche of positive on-chain data.
“This Bitcoin Bull Run is far from being overheated by multiple on-chain indicators,” he says summarized
“Compared to 2017, it looks like we’re around the $ 3k-5k range.”
Clemente uploaded a comparative chart showing Bitcoin price tops in 2013 and 2017 via the Puell Multiple, a classic statistic continues to signal that there is room for growth before a profitable sell-off can begin.
Such an early position in the bull cycle implies that most of the upward price performance is yet to come for Bitcoin, something that would give credence to some of the higher year-end forecasts – $ 288,000 and more.
As for selling miners, this is a habit that has yet to emerge this month.
Despite Bitcoin hitting near-record highs, in addition to record network hash speed and mining issues, there’s no point in making a profit on mined coins just yet, data shows.
Compiled by on-chain monitoring resource Glassnode, the change in the miners’ net position has indicated that miners are retaining their newly acquired coins for the past week.
In contrast, 2021 was broadly marked by sell-offs, especially in January when Bitcoin first hit $ 40,000. However, sales have since stalled, despite sustained – albeit slower – price increases.
“Still no sales, still accumulating, clear trend,” quant analyst Lex Moskovski noticed on the Glassnode numbers.
Exchanges come along with miners, which continue to see their BTC balance fall. Traders are therefore no more interested in selling for nearly $ 60,000 than anyone else.
Purpose ETF is approaching 17,000 BTC positions
Strikingly optimistic this month are the institutions – and they are putting their money where their mouth is, the latest figures say.
With open interest in Bitcoin futures markets approaching record highs, there remains a huge demand for institutional quality products, albeit when the price is right.
As such, the first licensed Bitcoin exchange-traded fund (ETF) in Canada, the Purpose Bitcoin ETF, continues to add BTC in step with its assets under management (AUM).
On April 5, Purpose owned 16,462 BTC and $ 22.1 billion CAD ($ 17.56 billion USD) in AUM after launching its ETF just two months ago.
Such as Cointelegraph reportedit is likely that the US will be under pressure to follow Canada by allowing an ETF on the market, with such a product receiving multiples of what Purpose has been able to draw from institutions in its own jurisdiction.
However, all of this could come at the expense of a tough institutional player, Grayscale, and its Grayscale Bitcoin Trust (GBTC).
In a battle for fees, GBTC can be lose interest for the more economical purpose, which is one of many Bitcoin offerings that undercut the company on its customer management fees.
Time to channel ‘situational awareness’
In a classic sign that the mantra of “the longer the perspective, the better” remains best for Bitcoiners, the popular stock price prediction model remains on track for $ 288,000 and above.
As its creator, quant analyst PlanB pointed out on Sunday, the model’s “bull / bear recognition signal” casually repeats its moves from 2013 and 2017.
A corresponding chart showed the BTC / USD spot price on the predicted trajectory, with no sign of the model being invalidated by short-term memories below $ 60,000.
The incarnation of stock-to-flow used was stock-to-flow cross-asset (S2FX), an updated version that puts Bitcoin in the context of other macro assets and follows its transformation to a new standard.
“My Favorite Card for Situational Awareness,” PlanB wrote in comments.
“S2FX for a raw long-term forecast (white line), combined with an accurate on-chain bull / bear recognition signal (color overlay).”
S2FX is asking for a price tag of $ 288,000 by the end of 2021, which represents an average price in the current halving cycle that will be completed by April 2024. In contrast, the price spike for that could be double the average or $ 576,000, PlanB said.